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000
ABNT20 KNHC 181742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just west of the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However,
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for
a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some
development early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18
 the center of Harvey was located near 13.2, -62.1
 with movement W at 21 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 5A

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
200 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France had discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move away from the
Windward Islands and through the eastern Caribbean Sea this
afternoon and tonight.  It should then move into the central
Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Locally gusty winds across the Windward Islands should
diminish this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the
Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.
These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 181449
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  61.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  61.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  60.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.3N  63.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.6N  67.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N  71.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N  75.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N  91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  61.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 181450
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

The structure of Harvey has changed little during the past several
hours, and overall the storm is poorly organized.  The low-level
center is near the eastern edge of the convective mass due
to the affects of 15 kt of vertical wind shear.  In addition,
surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data
suggest that the 850-mb center is located west or southwest of the
surface center.  Based on the aircraft and surface data, the central
pressure is near 1005 mb and the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is a quick 270/18.  A strong low- to mid-level
ridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3-4 days, with the system moving from the eastern to
the western Caribbean Sea during this time.  Late in the forecast
period, a more northerly motion is expected when Harvey passes near
or over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
eastern Mexico.  The new forecast track remains in the center of the
guidance, and only minor changes were made to the previous track.

The current shear should persist for the next 48 h or so, and thus
the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening
during this time.  After that, conditions appear favorable for
strengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey
will encounter.  The ECMWF keeps the cyclone a little north of
Nicaragua and Honduras and allows more room for development, while
the GFS forecasts landfall in northeastern Nicaragua and thus has a
weaker intensity.  The new NHC forecast is close to the previous
one in showing a peak intensity below hurricane strength, but
the confidence in this portion of the forecast is low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 13.1N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 13.3N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.6N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 14.0N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 14.3N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 15.0N  82.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 16.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 18.5N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 181449
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   9(26)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   3(36)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   X(28)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CURACAO        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AVES           34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 28   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics


Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 17:49:10 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:25:47 GMT
LightningRing