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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 200542
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching Puerto Rico.

Showers and thunderstorms continue near a low pressure area
associated with the remnants of Lee located about 1000 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. While this system is producing gale-force
winds, the associated thunderstorm activity has become less
concentrated during the past few hours. Although the enviromental
conditions are marginal, only a small increase in the overall
organization of the thunderstorms would result in the regeneration
of Lee. This low is expected to move northward over the central
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Additional information on the remnants of Lee can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...JOSE MOVING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
 As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 20
 the center of Jose was located near 38.2, -70.5
 with movement NE at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 973 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 59A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200543
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...JOSE MOVING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 70.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 70.5 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts...1 to 3
inches.
Nantucket and Cape Cod...2 to 4 inches.
Martha's Vineyard...3 to 5 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 59

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 200246
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  70.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  75SW  80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 190SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  70.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N  71.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.8N  69.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N  68.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.7N  67.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.7N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N  70.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 59

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200248
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and
although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface
winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane
strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers
which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose
is moving over cool waters.  This should result in additional
weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose
is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,
Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but
most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the
north in two days.  This new pattern should block the motion
of the storm and Jose should begin to meander.  The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the
HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 37.9N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 38.8N  69.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 39.6N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 39.7N  67.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/0000Z 38.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017


000
FONT12 KNHC 200247
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  59             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CONCORD NH     34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  5   3( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   3(18)   2(20)   1(21)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  4   3( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   3(16)   2(18)   1(19)
 
BOSTON MA      34  5   5(10)   5(15)   2(17)   4(21)   2(23)   X(23)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 15  12(27)   8(35)   3(38)   5(43)   1(44)   1(45)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 27  16(43)   7(50)   4(54)   4(58)   1(59)   1(60)
NANTUCKET MA   50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 10   7(17)   6(23)   2(25)   5(30)   1(31)   1(32)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  6   3( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   4(18)   3(21)   1(22)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  7   3(10)   3(13)   3(16)   4(20)   2(22)   1(23)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  5   3( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   3(17)   3(20)   X(20)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 10   5(15)   5(20)   2(22)   5(27)   2(29)   1(30)
 
ALBANY NY      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 17   6(23)   5(28)   3(31)   5(36)   3(39)   1(40)
 
ISLIP NY       34  9   3(12)   3(15)   2(17)   5(22)   2(24)   2(26)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  6   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   4(16)   2(18)   2(20)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  5   2( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   3(17)   2(19)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  4   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   2(16)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   2(14)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   3(17)   2(19)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   3(13)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   3(17)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   3(15)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   3(15)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Tropical Storm Jose Graphics


Tropical Storm Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 05:46:24 GMT

Tropical Storm Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 03:22:19 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  1058 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  1130 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...300 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...MARIA'S FURY AIMED AT PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...
 As of 3:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20
 the center of Maria was located near 17.7, -65.3
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 913 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 16A

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 65.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed
by a northwestward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
eye of Maria will cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of
the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves over Puerto Rico.  Slow weakening is expected
after the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  A sustained wind of 104 mph (167 km/h) with a wind
gust to 137 mph (220 km/h) was reported within the hour in the
western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter observations is 910 mb (26.87 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning.  Tropical storm
and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and
will spread over Puerto Rico in the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the
Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by later today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later
today.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on
Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in portions of the hurricane warning
area near the British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to
6 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 200243
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  64.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  909 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  64.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  64.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N  67.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N  68.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N  69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.2N  72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  64.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200245
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Since the previous advisory, WSR-88D radar data from San Juan
Puerto Rico has shown the development of concentric eyewalls and
a double-wind maximum.  This has led to an increase in the size of
the 50- and 64-kt wind radii.  An earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 157 kt
and a few SFMR winds of 149-152 kt in the small inner eyewall
between 2200 and 0000 UTC this evening.  Based on these data, the
initial wind speed was increased to 150 kt.  The minimum pressure
estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth
lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.
Since the outer eyewall has become better defined and the winds are
increasing within the outer eyewall, it is likely that Maria's
intensification will finally cease.  However, Maria is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane until landfall in
Puerto Rico early Wednesday.  The passage of the core over Puerto
Rico should cause some weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a
major hurricane for several more days. Increasing shear and cooler
waters over the western Atlantic in the wake of hurricanes Irma and
Jose will likely lead to additional weakening late in the period.

Maria is moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt.
A weak ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the
hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days.
This track will bring the center of Maria over Puerto Rico and just
north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so.
After that time, a break in the ridge should cause Maria to turn
north-northwestward, then northward by late in the week.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, yielding fairly high
confidence in the track forecast through that time.  There is some
increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the GFS
and HWRF farther west and faster, while the ECMWF is along the
eastern edge of the guidance and slow.  For now, the NHC track
forecast is between the various consensus models at 96 and 120 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next
few hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico
early Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.  Everyone in these
areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 17.3N  64.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 18.0N  65.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 18.9N  67.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 19.9N  68.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 20.9N  69.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 26.2N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 29.5N  72.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 200244
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   2(19)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  18(40)   2(42)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   2(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  42(52)   9(61)   X(61)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   X(31)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  43(58)  27(85)   2(87)   X(87)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  35(60)   2(62)   X(62)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  31(39)   1(40)   1(41)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   5( 6)  31(37)  26(63)   7(70)   1(71)   X(71)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2  15(17)  30(47)   6(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 78  18(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       64 21  53(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34 74  26(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50 15  80(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
AGUADILLA PR   64  2  76(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    64 64  31(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     64 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SAINT THOMAS   64 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Update Statement

Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  

000
WTNT65 KNHC 200658
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
300 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...300 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...MARIA'S FURY AIMED AT PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...

A sustained wind of 106 mph (170 km/h) with a wind gust to 137 mph
(220 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St.
Croix.

A sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h) was recently reported in Puerto Fajardo, Puerto Rico.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 05:54:46 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 03:28:41 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at  0

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at  218 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
LightningRing